Thursday, 5 September 2013

Not just pension (PFRDA)

Not just pension
Lok Sabha passing the PFRDA bill is good news. But if government means business, there's more to be done.
After a delay of nearly a decade, the Lok Sabha passed the pension bill on Wednesday. That the bill could finally go through is a heartening signal from Parliament.
In terms of implementation, through a network of sophisticated legal contracts, P. Chidambaram had already implemented the decision of the Vajpayee-led NDA government to build the New Pension System (NPS) — it applies for all new recruits to government January 2004 onwards.
The delay in the PFRDA Bill, therefore, did not hinder the building of the NPS. With the act in hand, it will be possible to merge the two strands of the NPS (civil servants and the unorganised sector) into a single system with portability.
Modern investment regulation will become possible. The PFRDA will have explicit regulatory and supervisory authority on the NPS.
The ministry of finance must now recruit a high quality team for the PFRDA and work towards the full-blown NPS, as originally envisaged by the Project OASIS report in 2000.
The NPS is now shaping up as a large pension system by world standards.
It features some of the lowest costs in the world for fund management and record keeping, thanks to the sound foundations right from the outset — with centralised record keeping at the National Securities Depository Limited and procurement of fund managers through auction.
While mutual funds and insurance companies have been beset by scandals in consumer protection, the design of the NPS, from the start, incorporated a sophisticated treatment of such imperatives.
Every employee of a private firm must be given the choice of walking out of the clutches of the EPFO, and shifting to the NPS.
The PFRDA Bill had become a symbol of the inability of the UPA 1 and UPA 2 administrations to carry through the simplest of policy projects — even one that had been initiated by the NDA administration.
Now, the UPA government must vigorously push on with the legislative agenda.
To make up for 10 years of stalling and decay, there is no time to lose.
Of prime importance are four big projects:
1)      the goods and services tax,
2)     the direct tax code,
3)     the Unique Identification Authority of India and
4)     the Indian financial code.
All are at a mature stage, draft bills already in hand. It should be possible to enact some of these laws in these last few months of the UPA's term.


Losing ground to Big Pharma, bit by BIT

Losing ground to Big Pharma, bit by BIT

India needs to revisit its bilateral investment treaties programme to ensure that multilateral gains on patents are not lost

Desperate to finance the high Current Account Deficit (CAD), India has approved seven proposals for brownfield FDI (foreign investment in existing companies) in the pharmaceutical sector.
Under the extant regulatory framework, 100 per cent FDI in the pharma sector is allowed through the automatic route in new projects (greenfield investments) but brownfield investments require the approval of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB).
Given the critical linkages of the pharmaceutical sector with public health, this piece seeks to highlight the need for caution in approving FDI in the pharma sector in the light of India’s international commitments under Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT).
Gains
International commitments on intellectual property rights especially patents have always been a sensitive issue especially in the context of the pharmaceutical sector.
While one side of the debate argues that stronger patent protection incentivises innovation, the other side has argued that a strong patent regime results in a monopolisation of production of essential medicines, accompanying high prices, and consequent exclusion of large sections of the population from essential medicines.
This tension was best depicted in the troubled negotiations that led to the adoption of the Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). The agreement brings the protection of intellectual property within the multilateral framework of trade rules established by the WTO.
In these negotiations, while the developed nations wished to keep to a minimum government interference with intellectual property, including the interference through compulsory licensing (authorising a third party to produce the patented drug), developing nations tried to preserve their regulatory freedom.
A compromise is embodied in Article 31 of TRIPS, which allows countries to issue compulsory licences on patented drugs.
While this provision does not lay down the grounds on which compulsory licences may be issued, it provides certain procedural safeguards and requires payment of “adequate remuneration” to the patent holder.
Indian patent law
Even after the agreement entered into force on January 1, 1995, certain concerns remained, which were sought to be addressed by the Doha Declaration on TRIPS and Public Health.
The declaration reiterated the commitment of WTO countries not to sacrifice public health at the altar of patent protection.
It clarified the sovereign right of individual countries to decide for themselves the circumstances warranting issuance of compulsory licenses.
Making use of the flexibilities in TRIPS, the Indian patent law has made an attempt to balance the need for patent protection of pharmaceutical drugs with the public interest of access to medicines.
Thus, while it allows patenting of pharmaceutical inventions, it does not allow ever greening of patented drugs by prohibiting patents on “the mere discovery of a new form of a known substance.”
Further, it also allows for the grant of compulsory licences at any time after three years from the sealing of a patent.
The requirement to wait for three years is waived in cases of national emergency or extreme urgency.
Patents can also be revoked in public interest.
Relying on this balanced statutory framework for patent protection, India issued compulsory licence on German drug major Bayer AG’s cancer drug Nexaver in March 2012.
Also, the Supreme Court in Novartis A.G. v. Union of India upheld the rejection of a patent application by Novartis, a Swiss pharma major, to patent a new version of the anti-leukaemia drug Glivec.
Conceding bilaterally
However, the gains that India got multilaterally on patents and public health may be lost bilaterally through BITs.
BITs are treaties aimed at protecting foreign investment.
These treaties allow foreign investors to bring cases, in front of three privately appointed arbitrators; against host states challenging the latter’s sovereign regulatory measures. This is known as investment treaty arbitration (ITA).
India has entered into BITs with 86 countries out of which 73 have already come into force. This includes almost all the major European countries like the United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland.
Further, in recent times, many foreign corporations — from global telecom giants to hedge funds — have issued ITA notices to India for alleged BIT breaches.
Most Indian BITs define investment broadly to include intellectual property like patents. This gives an ITA tribunal jurisdiction over regulatory actions of India that impact the intellectual property like a patent held by a foreign pharmaceutical company.
Indian BITs protect “investments” from expropriation. The term “expropriation” is defined in Indian BITs to include direct taking of an asset by the government as well as all other measures having the effect of “direct taking” that deprive the investor of an asset or its use.
Typically, Indian BITs permit expropriation only for a public purpose, in a non-discriminatory manner and against compensation. Often, the expression “compensation” is qualified by adjectives like “prompt,” “effective,” “fair,” and “full,” with a requirement to pay interest on compensation.
This makes the compensation requirement in BITs much more stringent than the “adequate remuneration” requirement mandated by the TRIPS agreement for issuance of compulsory licence.
Since patents fall within the definition of “investment,” its “taking” by way of compulsory licensing or its revocation would trigger the expropriation provisions in Indian BITs.
This would give a privately-appointed arbitral tribunal an opportunity to decide whether sovereign measures like issuance of compulsory licence or revocation of patents is legal or not.
Further, to bring this international claim, the foreign investor is not required to exhaust local remedies or get the approval of her government.
In this regard, it is important to derive warning signals from the service of an ITA notice, under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), by Eli Lilly and Company, a U.S.-based corporation, against Canada for invalidating two of its pharmaceutical patents.
Consequently, nothing stops Bayer and Novartis from initiating international law proceedings against India under India’s BITs with Germany and Switzerland.
To add to the worries, the proposed India-U.S. BIT is back in the news and progress is expected on that front during the meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Obama in late September.
Apart from the protection already enjoyed by pharma firms under the WTO, a BIT with the U.S. will grant additional protection to the patent rights of American pharma companies in India.
Thus, it is imperative that India revisits its BIT programme to ensure that multilateral gains on patents and public health are not lost bilaterally.


The silent emergency (on falling child sex ratios.)

The silent emergency

Government, civil society need to urgently address falling child sex ratios.
Preliminary findings after a whole year of campaigning on the falling child sex ratio (CSR), by 200 NGOs across 23 states, indicate that we have only skimmed the surface of this silent emergency. These NGOs had gathered under the National Foundation for India last year to deal with the problem. Findings show the implementation of the Pre Conception and Pre Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Prohibition of Sex Selection) Act continues to be poor, and the nexus between clinics, doctors and the political class is proving difficult to break.
While patriarchy continues to be the underlying cause for the problem, advances in technology have made sex selection easier for those wanting sons.
Mobile ultrasound machines have made their way into remote districts and it is now possible to determine the sex of the foetus through blood and urine tests. A year of campaigning revealed not just a "son preference" but also a "daughter aversion".
In 2011, alarm bells went off when the census revealed that the CSR for children from the age group of 0-6 years had plummeted to 919 girls to 1,000 boys, from 927 girls to 1,000 boys in 2001.
Except for Chhattisgarh and a few states of the Northeast, the entire country was in trouble.
The trend of eliminating girls spanned across class, caste, ethnic and religious lines. The situation was more disturbing in urban areas but even in rural areas, prosperity was leading to a fall in the CSR.
Both in 2001 and in 2011, the states that fared the worst in the north were Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Punjab and Chandigarh.
According to civil society representatives, there was little seriousness in implementing the PCPNDT Act. While Rajasthan has filed the maximum number of cases under the PCPNDT Act — more than 500 cases since 2009 — Delhi has reported only 62 cases, J&K one case and Himachal Pradesh, none. In Punjab and Haryana, more than 100 cases were filed under the act. In UP and Bihar, 108 and 126 cases, respectively, have been filed. The number of convictions, if any, is very low.
As Satish Agnihotri, an IAS officer who has worked extensively on the issue, pointed out, different regions had different weak links. In some areas, the appropriate authority for implementing the PCPNDT Act has not been formed, in other areas, it has been formed but is not working properly.
Identifying the weak links of each region is as vital as a sustained campaign to bring back the balance in the CSR.
There has also been some excellent work in different areas and these best practices need to be replicated and shared with the bigger movement.
In the Ganganagar district of Rajasthan, the Chamber of Commerce joined forces with the Gurudwara Committee to facilitate education for girls. This is in partnership with the Let Girls Be Born Campaign, run by NGOs Plan India and Urmul Setu. Local panchayats are celebrating the birth of girls and several families have come forward to adopt girls from families that feel they cannot afford to support more than one daughter.
In many states, a larger female workforce has shown an improved sex ratio. So there is a need to focus on education and employment for women.
However, in Kerala, which has the highest literacy rate in the country, the CSR is declining.
In India, the medical termination of pregnancy was legalised in 1971.
Women, quite rightly, don't want to lose out on this right, which gives them control over their bodies.
But people seem unable to distinguish between safe abortion, which is legal, and sex selective elimination, which is illegal. In the north, a pro-life group is adding to the misunderstanding and confusion on the two issues.
Another problem that calls for attention is violence against women, which is aggravated when the woman is unable to produce a male child.
The existing laws need to be strengthened through implementation. It is equally important to educate medical professionals on the ethics of medical practice.
Working with faith-based organisations may help because they lay the cultural foundations of society.
But campaigners feel that collaboration with religious groups "is a double-edged weapon".
Meanwhile, the ministry of women and child development has identified 100 districts with a poor CSR and drawn up an action plan.
As a first step, the collectors of these districts and some civil society organisations have been called upon to launch a mission to save the girl child.
At the national level, the ministry will work closely with the information and broadcasting ministry and others to create a fund for a media campaign on the declining CSR.
Only the joint efforts of government and civil society organisations can reverse this bleak trend.


Justice and the juvenile

Justice and the juvenile
Calls to dilute the Juvenile Justice Act in light of what is perceived as lenient punishment to the juvenile offender in the Delhi gang rape case are understandable but misplaced.
The crime shook the country’s conscience, brought forth an unprecedented outpouring of anger and triggered collective introspection on the safety of women and girls. But even though there is a view that the young perpetrator has been able to get away lightly, this is not reason enough to question or do away with the principles underlying juvenile justice.
Separate legislation has existed in many countries around the world since the early 20th century for the care and protection of children, including child offenders.
The present system in India was introduced by a 1986 Act and improved upon in 2000.
The JJ Act, 2000, a progressive legislation, replaced the regular judicial process with a reformatory regime, favouring supervised probation or stay in an observation home over imprisonment. The law tries to reform a young offender’s conduct rather than confine him for decades in a prison with adult criminals, which only works to fan recidivist tendencies.
While refusing to allow the Delhi gang rape juvenile offender to be tried as an adult, the Supreme Court pointed out in its order that underage crime still forms only a tiny percentage of the large body of crime in the country.
However, merely going through a differential process for juvenile offenders is not enough. It is obvious that the social contract underlying a lenient regime requires equal attention to be paid to the design and implementation of a proper rehabilitation process.
Society will only countenance shielding young offenders guilty of great brutality from the rigours of adult justice if it is confident that they will indeed benefit from the rehabilitative approach to juvenile justice.
In India, we need to guard against the complacent belief that a stint in a remand home is enough for their rehabilitation.
The atmosphere in many such facilities is not conducive for reformation, and in fact may toughen or entrench criminal propensities.
The system should not end up creating a new underclass that combines a sense of triumph over avoiding a prison term after committing heinous crimes, with the psychological effects of staying under bleak, hope-denying conditions.
Making juvenile correctional facilities more humane is one part of the answer.
But to address the need for proportionality — not so much in punishment as in the necessity of socio-psychological repair — when a young offender commits truly heinous crimes, a longer period of sustained counselling and rehabilitation ought to be an essential part of the juvenile justice process even after the maximum period of remand is over.


Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Intelligent security

Intelligent security
Aaron Mannes, R.K. Raghavan, Animesh Roul and V.S. Subrahmanian
High-profile arrests of Tunda and Bhatkal tell the story of how India's security apparatus is getting better at border control and intelligence operations. There is a lot more to be done.
On August 29, Indian security teams scored a major victory in their fight against terrorism when they captured Yasin Bhatkal, one of the leaders of the Indian Mujahideen, a formidable terrorist group that derives its inspiration from across the border, specifically the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Pakistan's ever-mischievous Inter-Services Intelligence. Although we don't have all the facts, it is logical to speculate that Bhatkal's nabbing was a triumph of coordination between Indian and Nepalese agencies, and between R&AW, the IB and the NIA. It augurs well for the future fight against terrorists, both foreign and homegrown. The relationship is bound to have its ups and downs, but that should in no way be allowed to obscure the objective of strengthening national security. Nothing should be done either by the media or those in authority to dilute this harmony.
Responsible for complicity in numerous terrorist attacks, including the triple courthouse bombings in Uttar Pradesh in 2007, the 2008 simultaneous bombings in Jaipur as well as another series of simultaneous bombings the same year in Bengaluru and the German Bakery bombing in Pune in 2010, the IM has struck terror across many of India's major cities, killing hundreds of innocent civilians. A coordinated effort by India's security authorities led to engineer-turned-terrorist Bhatkal's arrest at the border between India and Nepal. Despite coming in for much criticism over the years, the country's security apparatus richly deserves the accolades it is now receiving for its role in the latest arrest.
But amidst the congratulations and backslapping, there is cause for concern and enhanced vigilance. According to a forthcoming book titled Indian Mujahideen: Analysis and Policies (Springer 2014) by the authors of this article, arrests of IM operatives are almost always followed a few months later by additional terror attacks. IM's forays are almost always targeted at "soft" targets, such as market places, and often involve multiple devices and locations, usually — but not always — in the same city. With the demoralising effect of Bhatkal's arrest on its cadre, IM leaders such as Amir Reza Khan and Abdul Subhan Qureshi, who are said to be still at large in Pakistan, may decide to revitalise their operatives with fresh attacks on "soft" targets during the next three to four months. Based on their historical modus operandi, the cities most at risk are those in UP (such as Varanasi and Lucknow), as well as Delhi, Bengaluru, Mumbai and Jaipur. Chennai, incident-free for several years, is increasingly becoming a theatre for the demonstration of militant feelings, as evidenced by a procession some Muslim organisations took out last September close to the US consulate on the arterial Anna Salai. This was to protest against an American movie that had allegedly denigrated Islam. Chennai Police will remain anxious on this score. Undaunted by Bhatkal's arrest, elements of the IM may be expected to bounce back.
The official counter-offensive requires a strong and widespread intelligence presence and police station-level alertness that would sharpen the protection of crowded places in these cities. This would pose a formidable challenge, even with professionally trained intelligence staff, something India does not uniformly possess. Moreover, the book points out that it is vital to keep track of public communications issued by the IM (including claims of responsibility for past attacks and attempts to embarrass India by threatening attacks before the 2010 Commonwealth Games).
It will, therefore, be critical to monitor any public statements put out by the IM in the next few weeks. Their tenor may be one of bravado. But it is backed by some solid yet destructive achievements on the field that can hardly be ignored.
An even greater intelligence coup could include more details of how the ISI facilitates the travel of IM operatives, enabling them to receive training in Pakistani camps, including those run by the LeT. The precise nature of the relationship between the IM, LeT, ISI, and Dawood Ibrahim's D-Company is murky, though the evidence of complicity of these entities in terrorist attacks within India is overwhelming. Bhatkal, as a leader of the IM, is undoubtedly well informed. Previous arrests have yielded valid Pakistani passports issued to IM operatives. The fact that Bhatkal was able to travel extensively not only to the Persian Gulf and Pakistan, but also the US, implies that he received abundant support during the last 10 years. Finding out who facilitated such travel, and how, will be critical in reducing IM operations in the future. This is why Bhatkal's interrogation by the NIA in the next few days assumes great importance.
One recommendation in the book is that India build a comprehensive travel information system that tracks any movement both within and outside India that uses public transportation (planes, trains, buses, ships), and that such travel intelligence must not be limited to India alone but span, at the very least, all of the Middle East and Asia. Moreover, added intelligence on how the IM is financed could be another potential intelligence bonanza. It is critical to have detailed information on who finances IM operations and who helps it move money from one source to another. The hawala route is highly probable, but that does not mean there are no others. One may not be able to prove a direct ISI hand in all this, which is why it is essential to locate individuals who provide the conduit.
In past weeks, two high-profile arrests on the porous India-Nepal border — this one, and of LeT bombmaker Tunda — tell the story of how Indian security is getting better at both border control and intelligence operations. At the same time, we should be conscious that the IM is likely to adapt itself adroitly to the increased smartness of Indian agencies. And with support from its sponsors, there is little doubt that new weak points along the border will be identified so as to facilitate the travel of IM operatives.
India needs to extend the definition of its border, perhaps by assisting Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka to implement better border controls so that Pakistani passports issued to terror operatives are quickly identified there, providing a second line of defence. Such support will also assist these nations in better counter-terror operations within their own national boundaries.
This summer's intelligence successes deserve our warmest congratulations, but there is a lot more to do. While R&AW and the IB have their jobs cut out for them, the NIA interrogations will have to be more aggressive and focused if they are to be productive. The NIA is slowly acquiring an élan that is heartwarming, dispelling earlier misgivings about its capacity. This setting implies also a greater willingness to be transparent in dealing with foreign intelligence apparatuses, especially the US's Federal Bureau of Investigation. The reported differences of opinion over the David Headley issue may have to be papered over, and a fresh start at collaboration with the FBI given a chance to succeed.
Mannes is a counter-terrorism and policy researcher at the University of Maryland, where Subrahmanian is professor of computer science. Raghavan is a former director of the CBI. Roul is director of the Society for Study of Peace and Conflict. They are co-authors of the forthcoming book, 'Indian Mujahideen: Analysis and Policies'


Indo-Bangla relations.

Let’s not miss the big picture
KAMAL DAVAR

India should do all it can to resolve contentious issues with Bangladesh in order to strengthen the hands of the secular Sheikh Hasina government

Among all our neighbours, the nation whose birth is indelibly linked to India is Bangladesh. That this nation, uniquely in the Islamic world, is struggling to be a modern secular state, has always acknowledged India’s support for its independence from Pakistan and now looks forward to developing an all encompassing positive relationship with us is inexplicably underplayed in this country.
Economic & political linkages
For long, India has looked at the West as the centre of gravity of its strategic interests, but to little avail.
Our much heralded ‘Look East Policy,’ though initiated in 1993 by the late Narasimha Rao when he was Prime Minister, has only received some impetus. Bangladesh is a natural pillar of this policy, be as it can a ‘bridge’ to economic and political linkages with South East Asia and beyond.
A friendly Bangladesh that ensures no anti-India terror or insurgent activities can be carried out from its soil unlike in the past will substantially assist India in handling security problems in some of its restive north-east States.
Importantly, a ‘neutral’ Bangladesh also ensures containment of an assertive China in this region, including along the strategic sea-lanes of the Bay of Bengal.
Since Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League came to power five years ago, there has been tremendous goodwill for India in Bangladesh. In December, she faces a bitter general election in which her adversaries are the congenitally anti-India Islamic fundamentalists. That India has a stake in the victory of secular forces in Bangladesh is a factor it can disregard only at its peril.
It is accepted by all that Sheikh Hasina has largely delivered on Indian security concerns by cracking down on terrorism directed against India from Bangladeshi soil. Additionally, the current government is doing its utmost to keep Islamic fundamentalism in Bangladesh, represented by the likes of Harkat-al-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the recently banned political outfit Jamaat-e-Islami, others like Hefajat-e-Islam, Jagrata Muslim Janata, and HUJI-B whose links to al Qaeda are well known, at bay at some cost to the Awami League rank and file.
It must also be noted that when India’s President Pranab Mukherjee recently visited Bangladesh, the other prime ministerial aspirant in Dhaka, Begum Khaleda Zia, whose Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is known to encourage anti-India sentiments and has traditionally colluded with fundamentalists in the past, did not bother to meet him. Electoral battle-lines between the two parties in Bangladesh are also drawn over their regional priorities.
Unfortunately, there exist many contentious issues between the two countries, primarily in the division of common river waters.
Not surprising considering we share 54 trans-boundary rivers, big and small!
In 1996, the sharing of the Ganga waters was successfully agreed upon between the two nations. However, the major area of dispute has been India’s construction and operation of the Farakka Barrage to increase water supply to the river Hooghly.
Bangladesh complains that it does not get a fair share of the water in the dry season and some of its areas get flooded when India releases excess waters during the monsoons.
In addition, the sharing of the waters of the Teesta river is being vehemently opposed by India’s West Bengal government though many Indian security and water experts in that State empathise with Bangladesh’s stand. T
he sluggish execution of the Tipaimukh hydroelectric project on the Barak River in Bangladesh is another problem area. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has, however, graciously offered a reasonable partnership stake in this project to Bangladesh.
Then, there is the land corridor that India wants through Bangladesh, to connect West Bengal to the north-eastern States. Right now, the only land connection between these two parts of India is the 20 to 25 km wide Siliguri corridor (also known as India’s Chicken Neck). It appears that Bangladesh will grant this only after it gets its demand of water requirements. Importantly, its internal political situation has to ease enough for Dhaka to make such a concession to India.
India’s other concern is the issue of the continuing huge influx of undocumented Bangladesh migrants through a 4000 km-long porous international border, and despite a crackdown by the Sheikh Hasina government, the continuing presence of anti-India forces across the border.
Problems like trade imbalances and tariff barriers between the two nations are easily surmountable and India providing some business incentives recently to Bangladesh have been appreciated.
One other issue that could have been solved, but has been allowed to fester, is India’s inability to ratify the protocol to the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) of 1974 with Bangladesh. Under this, 161 adversely held small enclaves are to be exchanged by the two countries; 7,100 acres of land will be transferred to India and nearly 17,000 acres go to Bangladesh. The Union Cabinet had in February 2013 approved the draft LBA Bill for introduction in the monsoon session of Parliament for ratification of the swap deal. However, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the BJP have strongly opposed this deal much to the discomfiture of the Centre and annoyance of the Bangladesh government.
Legitimate demand
Overall, India has to consider if West Bengal, under Ms Banerjee, is unnecessarily spoiling the relationship between the two nations by putting spokes in New Delhi’s efforts to address Bangladesh’s legitimate demands. If this continues, India risks missing the larger picture.
Even West Bengal economists lament that their government’s failure to view the big picture and ‘putting politics before development’ has prevented the State from becoming India’s gateway to South East Asia and the Far East as a whole. That the Centre could have taken more efforts to bring the West Bengal Chief Minister on board prior to the Prime Minister’s Bangladesh visit is another story.
Addressing a dialogue organised recently by two think tanks of the two nations in New Delhi, Bangladesh High Commissioner to India Tariq Karim succinctly pointed out that “India’s growth is Bangladesh’s growth because Bangladesh can grow only when India grows.” He reminded his Indian audience of President Pranab Mukherjee’s observation that the “agenda for the future for both the countries has to be sub-regional.”
India-Bangladesh relations have more than an academic strategic content. In the long run, India’s national interests primarily lie towards and beyond its eastern flanks to South East Asia and the new geographical and strategic construct namely Indo-Pacific Asia. India thus needs to strengthen the various regional groupings in this region like the ASEAN and the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). Importantly, by pragmatically reaching out to Bangladesh now, it will be able to strengthen the secular democratic forces in Islamic Bangladesh to our east — an imperative which must always be borne in our strategic formulations, for let us never forget that towards our western flank violent Islamic fundamentalism is on an alarming ascendant.
(Lt Gen Davar was India’s first Chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency and Deputy Chief of the Integrated Defence Staff)


Significance of Durga Shakti: A turning point for better governance?

Significance of Durga Shakti: A turning point for better governance?
Rajivan Krishnaswamy

Various social organisations and trade unions organise a candle light protest against the suspension of IAS officer Durga Shakti Nagpal in Lucknow.
In the wake of the Durga Shakti Nagpal controversy which hit headlines, former senior bureaucrat Dr. Rajivan Krishnaswamy raises an important question about whether the public outrage over the young IAS officer’s case reflects accumulated anger over "the state of public goods". He also asks whether the Durga Nagpal case can be a trend-changer resulting in a serious debate on genuine governance reform.
Now that the immediate news value of Durga Shakti Nagpal’s dramatic suspension and media aftermath is behind us, it is perhaps time to reflect upon the significance of the event for the politician-civil servant relationship and speculate on future prospects for clean governance in India, governance that protects and promotes public good. Three questions are explored here:
One, is the faceoff between Nagpal on the one hand, and the Samajwadi Party (SP) with the sand mafia on the other, just a case of a local conflict between politically-backed vested interests and an honest civil servant simply doing her job? Is a conflict, though painful for the civil servant, part of the occupational hazards of regulatory work in democracies? Or is it a symptom of a deeper malaise, reflecting a trend that is worsening and hence in need of social policy action?
Two, to what extent is it an issue of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) versus other civil services? Recall that the SP has been highly vocal in saying that the State of Uttar Pradesh (UP) does not need any IAS officers at all, implying that they can run the administration better with officials fully under state control.
Three, what are the prospects for the future of governance in India? Does the intense public debate and open protest in Nagpal’s case suggest that cases of victimization of civil servants would decline in the future as public scrutiny can embarrass political leadership? Or would it embolden similar acts elsewhere, especially as she continues to be suspended, her husband transferred without cause, leaving the field wide open for even more blatant acts?
Episodes or trends?
When the number of individual instances of corruption become so numerous and pervasive, it is hard to dismiss them as episodic occurrences. They may be better characterised as trends. Dispassionate observers of the politician-civil servant relationship over the last 50 years would agree about two interrelated developments that point to a deeper malaise seen at all levels of government, but especially at the Central and State levels:
• The rising collusion between the three groups – political leaders, business interests and civil servants – in pursuing short-term gains even if it involves stealing public wealth directly, or harming the general public good.
• An increasing intolerance within government by the political and civil servant bosses towards the honest civil servant, skewing incentives, in turn, contributing to lowered standards of probity and progressive undermining of the greater common good.
 There is the grand corruption of large contracts that divert public money to further immediate private interests at the cost of the public good... In public procurement deals of huge commercial value, collusion can operate… A smart collusion ensures that only “cooperative” personnel are lined up along the progress of the file to eliminate potential disruptions. But when this is not done in advance and a civil servant becomes un-cooperative, s/he is sidelined, and in more blatant cases, disciplinary or even criminal proceedings initiated. Honesty is rebuffed repeatedly, and normal query on file calling for more information or seeking clear orders starts to look odd and becomes the subject of much corridor discussion. http://www.thehinducentre.com/template/1-0-1/gfx/quote_right.png
Assets with characteristics of “public” wealth such as the technology-based spectrum or a natural resource like coal, that have very high commercial values, are examples in recent times where large losses through policy have been alleged at the central level. At the State level too, licensing of mineral extraction, such as granite, for real estate involve collusive policy actions that have compromised public wealth. Such acts undermine future public revenues, apart from the inevitable environmental damage. These conspiracies cannot have occurred without tripartite connivance. When regulations themselves are fixed, such acts can even be perfectly legal but perfectly corrupt. They take on the nature of the very capture of the state.
Then there is the grand corruption of large contracts that divert public money to further immediate private interests at the cost of the public good. In public procurement deals of huge commercial value like defence at the centre, or excise regimes that favour cartels and even mass schemes needing repeated contracts like universal feeding at the State level, once again collusion can operate. Either the civil servant would initiate a patently absurd procurement or auction, or if the civil servant opposes such an act, the political boss has the confidence to find someone else that can do what is needed. A smart collusion ensures that only “cooperative” personnel are lined up along the progress of the file to eliminate potential disruptions. But when this is not done in advance and a civil servant becomes un-cooperative, s/he is sidelined, and in more blatant cases, disciplinary or even criminal proceedings initiated.
Since these acts have increased over time, and honesty rebuffed repeatedly, personal and professional costs to the honest civil servant increase at the margin. A normal query on file calling for more information or seeking clear orders starts to look odd and becomes the subject of much corridor discussion. The officer becomes mentally prepared to be, at the very least, summarily shifted from the post. The situation of Ashok Khemka appears to be a case in point – the officer, irrespective of the political party in power, has had an average tenure of six months over a career of three decades. When the lesson from each case of conflict is that honesty is costly, normal probity and resistance to corruption tend to decline.
In contrast with national and State levels, municipal and panchayat level politicians have yet to be delegated with powers to allocate public wealth, and local level bureaucracies have limited policy space. Not that corruption is absent, but typically, the money value is low. Examples such as a village administrative officer suspended for demanding a tip for a certificate, a forest ranger caught for ignoring illegal tree cutting, a block development officer charged for siphoning off part of a subsidy in a micro-credit scheme or a school teacher dismissed for demanding payments for grades, do find their way into local papers. As a matter of course, lower end government employees are more easily charged for acts of relatively petty corruption. Most multilateral assisted projects too, ironically, focus on the local levels for improving “governance” (euphemism for anti-corruption in development literature). The implicit assumption is that corruption decreases at higher levels of government – with no basis in experience. Sure, the local focus could also be because that is where the visible part of development projects is located, but could also be a convenient façade due to hesitation in confronting the client at the top.
The positive actions in running governance programmes through multilateral loans, and the punitive actions in catching the lowly serve to deflect attention from the more serious convivial relationship between the politician-businessman-official at higher levels of government. And the focus on petty, rat-like acts at lower levels deflects from serious dacoit-style acts of grand corruption and the less visible, insidious state capture at higher levels. It blinds us all to the old proverb that a fish usually rots from the head down.
The expenses for political success have been rising while the tenure of office is short and hence the need to recoup as soon as possible. Civil servants, on the other hand, have low financial costs for entry and a longer tenure than politicians, often with a pension for life including for a surviving spouse. Hence officials need to be undermined in other ways – transfers, suspensions, charges – to make them toe the line, with public good becoming a contested space. 
There have been several explanations for the rising misappropriation of public good through this nexus or for the official-politician conflict that sometimes comes in the way. A popular explanation runs as follows: the expenses for political success have been rising (it is rumoured that to win a parliamentary seat costs around Rs. 3 crores) while the tenure of office is short (five years) and hence the need to recoup as soon as possible. Civil servants, on the other hand, have low financial costs for entry (cheapest in money terms for the highest category of the IAS as the UPSC recruitments are beyond reproach, even though they cost more in terms of earnings lost in preparation time and the intense effort in competitive entry) and a longer tenure than politicians – at least thirty years – often with a pension for life including for a surviving spouse. Hence officials need to be undermined in other ways – transfers, suspensions, charges – to make them toe the line, with public good becoming a contested space. Advocates of strengthening all the civil services are probably motivated by institutional arrangements that insulate officials from pressures, to serve as barriers to rapid exploitation of public wealth. Unfortunately, counter examples abound, of officials acting with impunity and even guiding their political bosses through the intricacies of procedural requirements for legally diverting public wealth.
After the dismantling of the license raj in 1991, and the opening of the production of public goods like power and roads to the private sector, the opportunities for policy-based corruption declined. Advocates for further cuts in the public investments would like to reduce the scope for both the civil servant and the politician in making investment decisions. But there is little evidence to support this presumption – most acts of privatisation (starting from the disinvestment scandals in the 1990s), Enron and power, coal etc., have led to considerable losses. In fact, liberalisation itself, throws up more opportunities for conversion of public goods into private profits through bad policy.
IAS versus the rest: Debunking a red herring
We now look squarely at the question of the extent to which it is an issue of the IAS versus other civil services. The fact that Durga Shakti Nagpal is an IAS officer, has led the arguments in a potential red herring direction on the IAS itself – diverting from the core issue of misappropriation of public wealth. Note that the district mining officer was also summarily transferred but, without Nagpal, his case would not have received as much attention.
At one extreme, the SP that has stated it does not need IAS officers at all – meaning they do not want officials that do not do as bid. At the other extreme, and on the same basis, is the view that the IAS is the best hope for the protection of public good – a former Cabinet Secretary has argued that the IAS should be strengthened by policy actions such as fixed tenure etc. Both these positions are based on flawed premises. The SP argument presupposes that Nagpal did what she did because she was an IAS officer and the opposite camp that argues for strengthening the IAS, also lays great store by strengthened civil services. It is difficult to argue that she went after the sand mafia because she was an IAS officer. The non-IAS, District Mining Officer (also suddenly transferred) also seems to have been doing an excellent job. It is also unlikely that had Nagpal been from the state civil services she would have acted differently. There are innumerable instances of non-IAS officers who have upheld public interest against serious odds and equally significant number of IAS officers conniving in eroding of public interest (including a former chief secretary level officer from UP who had been found guilty in land scams). Therefore, the argument for strengthening the IAS through fixed tenures based on this case is weak. If anything, it would apply to all services.
On the other hand, the SP argument that an all India service like the IAS (with dual control of State and Central governments) is a hindrance to effective state government performance is equally weak. It presumes that non-IAS officers do not enter into conflicts with politicians as they are fully under state control. This too appears incorrect from the example of the district mining officer and from the example of the UP Chief Secretary (the head of the IAS) in suspending Nagpal without application of mind. And the dual control argument – allowing central government protection for Nagpal from arbitrary actions such as suspension in minutes – has proven to be no protection after all. The central government, and the department of personnel that has the powers to revoke the suspension, itself headed by an IAS officer, directly under the country’s Prime Minister, has remained silent. This, despite the Prime Minister as the departmental minister having been tasked by his party president to ensure justice was done. It would be interesting to document the discussions among the civil servants who actively participated in suspending Nagpal in UP and among those in Delhi who have the power to revoke but remain passive by not exercising that power. What exactly are they advising their political masters on the ramifications of this case?
Practical considerations would suggest that Nagpal, with hardly two years of work experience, and likely to spend another 30 years in UP, would be ill-advised to complain. Even if her suspension is revoked, she would be marked for life as “difficult” and probably end up with a career profile similar to that of Ashok Khemka. So for the SP to blame the IAS or the issue of dual control as the cause of the fiasco is unjustified.
However, some governments run by strong regional parties may be sympathetic to the view that the IAS has no special role, and its all-India status provides no value addition for the ruling government of the day. In Tamilnadu, for example, chief ministers have consistently held that directly recruited IAS officers are neither special, nor do they add value. Further they have through actions such as refusal to send these officers on central deputation, illegal suspension before voluntary retirement, cocked a snook at the central government and the associated notion of dual control. Nevertheless IAS officers have held key positions even with strong regional parties that are confident about their political strength and hence longer staying power – again showing that the issue is not IAS versus the rest as the SP has tried to pitch it.
60 years ago Sardar Patel argued that an all India Service was necessary to integrate a highly diverse country through good and unified governance after centuries of colonial rule and fragmented governance standards... But now, an objective assessment of the IAS would show that it has protected public good but also connived to erode it. 
The argument that the IAS is archaic and not relevant for today’s governance needs is, however, a more serious one – though for reasons different from those advanced by the SP. The sentiment behind creating the IAS is best summarised by Sardar Patel’s arguments in the Constituent Assembly debates. Patel argued that an all India Service was necessary to integrate a highly diverse country through good and unified governance after centuries of colonial rule and fragmented governance standards. Further, these objectives were to be achieved by a composition of IAS officers in states consisting of a ratio of insiders-outsiders selected through high entrance requirements. This system (the steel frame) was designed with the expectation that it would be less biased, prone to corruption and local influences. It would enable them to implement the union laws on the ground fairly uniformly, combined with their knowledge of local issues from establishing state cadres.
Now, around 60 years later, an objective assessment of the IAS with reference to these initial expectations would perhaps show mixed results. As argued earlier, the IAS has both protected public good but also connived to erode it. While the need for an all India policy and implementation framework for national public goods would probably justify the Indian Forest Service, the Indian Foreign Service, the Income Tax, Customs, Defence, and may be even the Police, it is not clear what national and integrating value the IAS brings to citizens. Further, if we take a random sample of IAS officers and stratify on the basis of caste, gender, region or class, and examine whether probity has an association with any of these attributes, one would not find any significant correlation, demonstrating that values such as probity in governance cannot be generated by designing ratios of insider/outsider or dual controls.
Are we at an inflection point?
We now turn to the issue of prospects for the future of governance in India. Could the Durga Shakti Nagpal case be a trend changer that results in serious debate on genuine governance reform? Would victimization of honest officials decline in the face of political embarrassment from growing public scrutiny? Or does this case reinforce a trend that emboldens more such acts? The prospects for change could potentially come from three sources: the bureaucracy itself, the political class, or the rising tide of civil society movements that are angrier and increasingly emboldened.
The reaction of the bureaucracy to the Nagpal episode could be, “Yes, this is what happens when you are young, you get hit, and there is no one to protect you, so next time walk away from confrontations; there are several sand mines but only one career.” This reaction type would reinforce the collusive trends and boost misappropriation. If the past is an efficient predictor, then the former reaction would, over time, subsume the latter. On the other hand, if this case is seen as a wakeup call, and energises all civil services (for example, several IAS associations have come forward to condemn the suspension) then the prospects for systemic reform improve.
The prospect for change from the political leadership is difficult to predict. Electoral democracies do not come cheap. The temptations for quick money and competitive compulsions of elections provide a fertile ground for collusion with business interests that not only generate money, but also benefit from policies and contracts. Hardly any democracy has found a foolproof solution to election funding. The significant positive signal of Sonia Gandhi in taking up the case has been dampened by the Manmohan Singh response asking first for a letter from the aggrieved official to do justice. Unlike on most other issues (food security, water sharing, Telangana or Bodoland) there is unanimity across political parties on amending the Right to Information Act to exclude them from having to share information. Yet, it can hardly be said that all political leaders are corrupt – in the past political movements have been motivated explicitly by social good. Moreover, in the game of electoral musical chairs, political strategy may lead to a realisation that it is better to support clean systems which do not work to their disadvantage when out of power. Political maturity may well lie in responding to people’s expectations in the times of hyper exposure in the media.
 The big unknown is the effect of the Durga Shakti Nagpal case on civil society. Over the years more and more sections of the civil society have accumulated anger against a corrupt system... The widespread disaffection is not only with acts of corruption but with the state of public goods… This anger, though sporadic and dispersed, is real. It may embed in it the kernel of a chance to change the status quo. 
The big unknown is the effect of the Durga Shakti Nagpal case on civil society. Over the years more and more sections of the civil society – as individual and as groups – have accumulated anger against a corrupt system. While “letterhead” CSOs do have questionable reputations, some of the collective action movements have shown remarkable staying power and an ability to channel public anger. The widespread disaffection is not only with acts of corruption but with the state of public goods, often expressed petulantly as “why should I pay taxes from my hard earned money for this corrupt neta-business-babu nexus to spend?” This anger, though sporadic and dispersed, is real. It may embed in it the kernel of a chance to change the status quo. A catalysing agent may be the new media which make collective action far easier. It can amplify voice and visibility at very low cost in terms of money, time or effort. A small voice can leverage disproportionate power through extraordinary and instant visibility.
Time will tell whether India is at a turning point – whether people’s pressure from below will join hands with political maturity from above. The civil service usually complies.
(Rajivan Krishnaswamy has a Masters and PhD in Economics from the University of Southern California, Los Angeles. He has worked in the IAS, at various levels, starting from city level administration to the prime ministers office. He was the CEO and MD of the Tamilnadu Urban Development Fund (1996-2003), after which he worked as Senior Urban Finance Specialist at the World Bank in Washington. Currently he is an independent consultant based in Chennai, working in China, Vietnam and Ghana.)