Thursday, 5 September 2013

The silent emergency (on falling child sex ratios.)

The silent emergency

Government, civil society need to urgently address falling child sex ratios.
Preliminary findings after a whole year of campaigning on the falling child sex ratio (CSR), by 200 NGOs across 23 states, indicate that we have only skimmed the surface of this silent emergency. These NGOs had gathered under the National Foundation for India last year to deal with the problem. Findings show the implementation of the Pre Conception and Pre Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Prohibition of Sex Selection) Act continues to be poor, and the nexus between clinics, doctors and the political class is proving difficult to break.
While patriarchy continues to be the underlying cause for the problem, advances in technology have made sex selection easier for those wanting sons.
Mobile ultrasound machines have made their way into remote districts and it is now possible to determine the sex of the foetus through blood and urine tests. A year of campaigning revealed not just a "son preference" but also a "daughter aversion".
In 2011, alarm bells went off when the census revealed that the CSR for children from the age group of 0-6 years had plummeted to 919 girls to 1,000 boys, from 927 girls to 1,000 boys in 2001.
Except for Chhattisgarh and a few states of the Northeast, the entire country was in trouble.
The trend of eliminating girls spanned across class, caste, ethnic and religious lines. The situation was more disturbing in urban areas but even in rural areas, prosperity was leading to a fall in the CSR.
Both in 2001 and in 2011, the states that fared the worst in the north were Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Punjab and Chandigarh.
According to civil society representatives, there was little seriousness in implementing the PCPNDT Act. While Rajasthan has filed the maximum number of cases under the PCPNDT Act — more than 500 cases since 2009 — Delhi has reported only 62 cases, J&K one case and Himachal Pradesh, none. In Punjab and Haryana, more than 100 cases were filed under the act. In UP and Bihar, 108 and 126 cases, respectively, have been filed. The number of convictions, if any, is very low.
As Satish Agnihotri, an IAS officer who has worked extensively on the issue, pointed out, different regions had different weak links. In some areas, the appropriate authority for implementing the PCPNDT Act has not been formed, in other areas, it has been formed but is not working properly.
Identifying the weak links of each region is as vital as a sustained campaign to bring back the balance in the CSR.
There has also been some excellent work in different areas and these best practices need to be replicated and shared with the bigger movement.
In the Ganganagar district of Rajasthan, the Chamber of Commerce joined forces with the Gurudwara Committee to facilitate education for girls. This is in partnership with the Let Girls Be Born Campaign, run by NGOs Plan India and Urmul Setu. Local panchayats are celebrating the birth of girls and several families have come forward to adopt girls from families that feel they cannot afford to support more than one daughter.
In many states, a larger female workforce has shown an improved sex ratio. So there is a need to focus on education and employment for women.
However, in Kerala, which has the highest literacy rate in the country, the CSR is declining.
In India, the medical termination of pregnancy was legalised in 1971.
Women, quite rightly, don't want to lose out on this right, which gives them control over their bodies.
But people seem unable to distinguish between safe abortion, which is legal, and sex selective elimination, which is illegal. In the north, a pro-life group is adding to the misunderstanding and confusion on the two issues.
Another problem that calls for attention is violence against women, which is aggravated when the woman is unable to produce a male child.
The existing laws need to be strengthened through implementation. It is equally important to educate medical professionals on the ethics of medical practice.
Working with faith-based organisations may help because they lay the cultural foundations of society.
But campaigners feel that collaboration with religious groups "is a double-edged weapon".
Meanwhile, the ministry of women and child development has identified 100 districts with a poor CSR and drawn up an action plan.
As a first step, the collectors of these districts and some civil society organisations have been called upon to launch a mission to save the girl child.
At the national level, the ministry will work closely with the information and broadcasting ministry and others to create a fund for a media campaign on the declining CSR.
Only the joint efforts of government and civil society organisations can reverse this bleak trend.


Justice and the juvenile

Justice and the juvenile
Calls to dilute the Juvenile Justice Act in light of what is perceived as lenient punishment to the juvenile offender in the Delhi gang rape case are understandable but misplaced.
The crime shook the country’s conscience, brought forth an unprecedented outpouring of anger and triggered collective introspection on the safety of women and girls. But even though there is a view that the young perpetrator has been able to get away lightly, this is not reason enough to question or do away with the principles underlying juvenile justice.
Separate legislation has existed in many countries around the world since the early 20th century for the care and protection of children, including child offenders.
The present system in India was introduced by a 1986 Act and improved upon in 2000.
The JJ Act, 2000, a progressive legislation, replaced the regular judicial process with a reformatory regime, favouring supervised probation or stay in an observation home over imprisonment. The law tries to reform a young offender’s conduct rather than confine him for decades in a prison with adult criminals, which only works to fan recidivist tendencies.
While refusing to allow the Delhi gang rape juvenile offender to be tried as an adult, the Supreme Court pointed out in its order that underage crime still forms only a tiny percentage of the large body of crime in the country.
However, merely going through a differential process for juvenile offenders is not enough. It is obvious that the social contract underlying a lenient regime requires equal attention to be paid to the design and implementation of a proper rehabilitation process.
Society will only countenance shielding young offenders guilty of great brutality from the rigours of adult justice if it is confident that they will indeed benefit from the rehabilitative approach to juvenile justice.
In India, we need to guard against the complacent belief that a stint in a remand home is enough for their rehabilitation.
The atmosphere in many such facilities is not conducive for reformation, and in fact may toughen or entrench criminal propensities.
The system should not end up creating a new underclass that combines a sense of triumph over avoiding a prison term after committing heinous crimes, with the psychological effects of staying under bleak, hope-denying conditions.
Making juvenile correctional facilities more humane is one part of the answer.
But to address the need for proportionality — not so much in punishment as in the necessity of socio-psychological repair — when a young offender commits truly heinous crimes, a longer period of sustained counselling and rehabilitation ought to be an essential part of the juvenile justice process even after the maximum period of remand is over.


Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Intelligent security

Intelligent security
Aaron Mannes, R.K. Raghavan, Animesh Roul and V.S. Subrahmanian
High-profile arrests of Tunda and Bhatkal tell the story of how India's security apparatus is getting better at border control and intelligence operations. There is a lot more to be done.
On August 29, Indian security teams scored a major victory in their fight against terrorism when they captured Yasin Bhatkal, one of the leaders of the Indian Mujahideen, a formidable terrorist group that derives its inspiration from across the border, specifically the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Pakistan's ever-mischievous Inter-Services Intelligence. Although we don't have all the facts, it is logical to speculate that Bhatkal's nabbing was a triumph of coordination between Indian and Nepalese agencies, and between R&AW, the IB and the NIA. It augurs well for the future fight against terrorists, both foreign and homegrown. The relationship is bound to have its ups and downs, but that should in no way be allowed to obscure the objective of strengthening national security. Nothing should be done either by the media or those in authority to dilute this harmony.
Responsible for complicity in numerous terrorist attacks, including the triple courthouse bombings in Uttar Pradesh in 2007, the 2008 simultaneous bombings in Jaipur as well as another series of simultaneous bombings the same year in Bengaluru and the German Bakery bombing in Pune in 2010, the IM has struck terror across many of India's major cities, killing hundreds of innocent civilians. A coordinated effort by India's security authorities led to engineer-turned-terrorist Bhatkal's arrest at the border between India and Nepal. Despite coming in for much criticism over the years, the country's security apparatus richly deserves the accolades it is now receiving for its role in the latest arrest.
But amidst the congratulations and backslapping, there is cause for concern and enhanced vigilance. According to a forthcoming book titled Indian Mujahideen: Analysis and Policies (Springer 2014) by the authors of this article, arrests of IM operatives are almost always followed a few months later by additional terror attacks. IM's forays are almost always targeted at "soft" targets, such as market places, and often involve multiple devices and locations, usually — but not always — in the same city. With the demoralising effect of Bhatkal's arrest on its cadre, IM leaders such as Amir Reza Khan and Abdul Subhan Qureshi, who are said to be still at large in Pakistan, may decide to revitalise their operatives with fresh attacks on "soft" targets during the next three to four months. Based on their historical modus operandi, the cities most at risk are those in UP (such as Varanasi and Lucknow), as well as Delhi, Bengaluru, Mumbai and Jaipur. Chennai, incident-free for several years, is increasingly becoming a theatre for the demonstration of militant feelings, as evidenced by a procession some Muslim organisations took out last September close to the US consulate on the arterial Anna Salai. This was to protest against an American movie that had allegedly denigrated Islam. Chennai Police will remain anxious on this score. Undaunted by Bhatkal's arrest, elements of the IM may be expected to bounce back.
The official counter-offensive requires a strong and widespread intelligence presence and police station-level alertness that would sharpen the protection of crowded places in these cities. This would pose a formidable challenge, even with professionally trained intelligence staff, something India does not uniformly possess. Moreover, the book points out that it is vital to keep track of public communications issued by the IM (including claims of responsibility for past attacks and attempts to embarrass India by threatening attacks before the 2010 Commonwealth Games).
It will, therefore, be critical to monitor any public statements put out by the IM in the next few weeks. Their tenor may be one of bravado. But it is backed by some solid yet destructive achievements on the field that can hardly be ignored.
An even greater intelligence coup could include more details of how the ISI facilitates the travel of IM operatives, enabling them to receive training in Pakistani camps, including those run by the LeT. The precise nature of the relationship between the IM, LeT, ISI, and Dawood Ibrahim's D-Company is murky, though the evidence of complicity of these entities in terrorist attacks within India is overwhelming. Bhatkal, as a leader of the IM, is undoubtedly well informed. Previous arrests have yielded valid Pakistani passports issued to IM operatives. The fact that Bhatkal was able to travel extensively not only to the Persian Gulf and Pakistan, but also the US, implies that he received abundant support during the last 10 years. Finding out who facilitated such travel, and how, will be critical in reducing IM operations in the future. This is why Bhatkal's interrogation by the NIA in the next few days assumes great importance.
One recommendation in the book is that India build a comprehensive travel information system that tracks any movement both within and outside India that uses public transportation (planes, trains, buses, ships), and that such travel intelligence must not be limited to India alone but span, at the very least, all of the Middle East and Asia. Moreover, added intelligence on how the IM is financed could be another potential intelligence bonanza. It is critical to have detailed information on who finances IM operations and who helps it move money from one source to another. The hawala route is highly probable, but that does not mean there are no others. One may not be able to prove a direct ISI hand in all this, which is why it is essential to locate individuals who provide the conduit.
In past weeks, two high-profile arrests on the porous India-Nepal border — this one, and of LeT bombmaker Tunda — tell the story of how Indian security is getting better at both border control and intelligence operations. At the same time, we should be conscious that the IM is likely to adapt itself adroitly to the increased smartness of Indian agencies. And with support from its sponsors, there is little doubt that new weak points along the border will be identified so as to facilitate the travel of IM operatives.
India needs to extend the definition of its border, perhaps by assisting Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka to implement better border controls so that Pakistani passports issued to terror operatives are quickly identified there, providing a second line of defence. Such support will also assist these nations in better counter-terror operations within their own national boundaries.
This summer's intelligence successes deserve our warmest congratulations, but there is a lot more to do. While R&AW and the IB have their jobs cut out for them, the NIA interrogations will have to be more aggressive and focused if they are to be productive. The NIA is slowly acquiring an élan that is heartwarming, dispelling earlier misgivings about its capacity. This setting implies also a greater willingness to be transparent in dealing with foreign intelligence apparatuses, especially the US's Federal Bureau of Investigation. The reported differences of opinion over the David Headley issue may have to be papered over, and a fresh start at collaboration with the FBI given a chance to succeed.
Mannes is a counter-terrorism and policy researcher at the University of Maryland, where Subrahmanian is professor of computer science. Raghavan is a former director of the CBI. Roul is director of the Society for Study of Peace and Conflict. They are co-authors of the forthcoming book, 'Indian Mujahideen: Analysis and Policies'


Indo-Bangla relations.

Let’s not miss the big picture
KAMAL DAVAR

India should do all it can to resolve contentious issues with Bangladesh in order to strengthen the hands of the secular Sheikh Hasina government

Among all our neighbours, the nation whose birth is indelibly linked to India is Bangladesh. That this nation, uniquely in the Islamic world, is struggling to be a modern secular state, has always acknowledged India’s support for its independence from Pakistan and now looks forward to developing an all encompassing positive relationship with us is inexplicably underplayed in this country.
Economic & political linkages
For long, India has looked at the West as the centre of gravity of its strategic interests, but to little avail.
Our much heralded ‘Look East Policy,’ though initiated in 1993 by the late Narasimha Rao when he was Prime Minister, has only received some impetus. Bangladesh is a natural pillar of this policy, be as it can a ‘bridge’ to economic and political linkages with South East Asia and beyond.
A friendly Bangladesh that ensures no anti-India terror or insurgent activities can be carried out from its soil unlike in the past will substantially assist India in handling security problems in some of its restive north-east States.
Importantly, a ‘neutral’ Bangladesh also ensures containment of an assertive China in this region, including along the strategic sea-lanes of the Bay of Bengal.
Since Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League came to power five years ago, there has been tremendous goodwill for India in Bangladesh. In December, she faces a bitter general election in which her adversaries are the congenitally anti-India Islamic fundamentalists. That India has a stake in the victory of secular forces in Bangladesh is a factor it can disregard only at its peril.
It is accepted by all that Sheikh Hasina has largely delivered on Indian security concerns by cracking down on terrorism directed against India from Bangladeshi soil. Additionally, the current government is doing its utmost to keep Islamic fundamentalism in Bangladesh, represented by the likes of Harkat-al-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the recently banned political outfit Jamaat-e-Islami, others like Hefajat-e-Islam, Jagrata Muslim Janata, and HUJI-B whose links to al Qaeda are well known, at bay at some cost to the Awami League rank and file.
It must also be noted that when India’s President Pranab Mukherjee recently visited Bangladesh, the other prime ministerial aspirant in Dhaka, Begum Khaleda Zia, whose Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is known to encourage anti-India sentiments and has traditionally colluded with fundamentalists in the past, did not bother to meet him. Electoral battle-lines between the two parties in Bangladesh are also drawn over their regional priorities.
Unfortunately, there exist many contentious issues between the two countries, primarily in the division of common river waters.
Not surprising considering we share 54 trans-boundary rivers, big and small!
In 1996, the sharing of the Ganga waters was successfully agreed upon between the two nations. However, the major area of dispute has been India’s construction and operation of the Farakka Barrage to increase water supply to the river Hooghly.
Bangladesh complains that it does not get a fair share of the water in the dry season and some of its areas get flooded when India releases excess waters during the monsoons.
In addition, the sharing of the waters of the Teesta river is being vehemently opposed by India’s West Bengal government though many Indian security and water experts in that State empathise with Bangladesh’s stand. T
he sluggish execution of the Tipaimukh hydroelectric project on the Barak River in Bangladesh is another problem area. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has, however, graciously offered a reasonable partnership stake in this project to Bangladesh.
Then, there is the land corridor that India wants through Bangladesh, to connect West Bengal to the north-eastern States. Right now, the only land connection between these two parts of India is the 20 to 25 km wide Siliguri corridor (also known as India’s Chicken Neck). It appears that Bangladesh will grant this only after it gets its demand of water requirements. Importantly, its internal political situation has to ease enough for Dhaka to make such a concession to India.
India’s other concern is the issue of the continuing huge influx of undocumented Bangladesh migrants through a 4000 km-long porous international border, and despite a crackdown by the Sheikh Hasina government, the continuing presence of anti-India forces across the border.
Problems like trade imbalances and tariff barriers between the two nations are easily surmountable and India providing some business incentives recently to Bangladesh have been appreciated.
One other issue that could have been solved, but has been allowed to fester, is India’s inability to ratify the protocol to the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) of 1974 with Bangladesh. Under this, 161 adversely held small enclaves are to be exchanged by the two countries; 7,100 acres of land will be transferred to India and nearly 17,000 acres go to Bangladesh. The Union Cabinet had in February 2013 approved the draft LBA Bill for introduction in the monsoon session of Parliament for ratification of the swap deal. However, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the BJP have strongly opposed this deal much to the discomfiture of the Centre and annoyance of the Bangladesh government.
Legitimate demand
Overall, India has to consider if West Bengal, under Ms Banerjee, is unnecessarily spoiling the relationship between the two nations by putting spokes in New Delhi’s efforts to address Bangladesh’s legitimate demands. If this continues, India risks missing the larger picture.
Even West Bengal economists lament that their government’s failure to view the big picture and ‘putting politics before development’ has prevented the State from becoming India’s gateway to South East Asia and the Far East as a whole. That the Centre could have taken more efforts to bring the West Bengal Chief Minister on board prior to the Prime Minister’s Bangladesh visit is another story.
Addressing a dialogue organised recently by two think tanks of the two nations in New Delhi, Bangladesh High Commissioner to India Tariq Karim succinctly pointed out that “India’s growth is Bangladesh’s growth because Bangladesh can grow only when India grows.” He reminded his Indian audience of President Pranab Mukherjee’s observation that the “agenda for the future for both the countries has to be sub-regional.”
India-Bangladesh relations have more than an academic strategic content. In the long run, India’s national interests primarily lie towards and beyond its eastern flanks to South East Asia and the new geographical and strategic construct namely Indo-Pacific Asia. India thus needs to strengthen the various regional groupings in this region like the ASEAN and the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). Importantly, by pragmatically reaching out to Bangladesh now, it will be able to strengthen the secular democratic forces in Islamic Bangladesh to our east — an imperative which must always be borne in our strategic formulations, for let us never forget that towards our western flank violent Islamic fundamentalism is on an alarming ascendant.
(Lt Gen Davar was India’s first Chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency and Deputy Chief of the Integrated Defence Staff)


Significance of Durga Shakti: A turning point for better governance?

Significance of Durga Shakti: A turning point for better governance?
Rajivan Krishnaswamy

Various social organisations and trade unions organise a candle light protest against the suspension of IAS officer Durga Shakti Nagpal in Lucknow.
In the wake of the Durga Shakti Nagpal controversy which hit headlines, former senior bureaucrat Dr. Rajivan Krishnaswamy raises an important question about whether the public outrage over the young IAS officer’s case reflects accumulated anger over "the state of public goods". He also asks whether the Durga Nagpal case can be a trend-changer resulting in a serious debate on genuine governance reform.
Now that the immediate news value of Durga Shakti Nagpal’s dramatic suspension and media aftermath is behind us, it is perhaps time to reflect upon the significance of the event for the politician-civil servant relationship and speculate on future prospects for clean governance in India, governance that protects and promotes public good. Three questions are explored here:
One, is the faceoff between Nagpal on the one hand, and the Samajwadi Party (SP) with the sand mafia on the other, just a case of a local conflict between politically-backed vested interests and an honest civil servant simply doing her job? Is a conflict, though painful for the civil servant, part of the occupational hazards of regulatory work in democracies? Or is it a symptom of a deeper malaise, reflecting a trend that is worsening and hence in need of social policy action?
Two, to what extent is it an issue of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) versus other civil services? Recall that the SP has been highly vocal in saying that the State of Uttar Pradesh (UP) does not need any IAS officers at all, implying that they can run the administration better with officials fully under state control.
Three, what are the prospects for the future of governance in India? Does the intense public debate and open protest in Nagpal’s case suggest that cases of victimization of civil servants would decline in the future as public scrutiny can embarrass political leadership? Or would it embolden similar acts elsewhere, especially as she continues to be suspended, her husband transferred without cause, leaving the field wide open for even more blatant acts?
Episodes or trends?
When the number of individual instances of corruption become so numerous and pervasive, it is hard to dismiss them as episodic occurrences. They may be better characterised as trends. Dispassionate observers of the politician-civil servant relationship over the last 50 years would agree about two interrelated developments that point to a deeper malaise seen at all levels of government, but especially at the Central and State levels:
• The rising collusion between the three groups – political leaders, business interests and civil servants – in pursuing short-term gains even if it involves stealing public wealth directly, or harming the general public good.
• An increasing intolerance within government by the political and civil servant bosses towards the honest civil servant, skewing incentives, in turn, contributing to lowered standards of probity and progressive undermining of the greater common good.
 There is the grand corruption of large contracts that divert public money to further immediate private interests at the cost of the public good... In public procurement deals of huge commercial value, collusion can operate… A smart collusion ensures that only “cooperative” personnel are lined up along the progress of the file to eliminate potential disruptions. But when this is not done in advance and a civil servant becomes un-cooperative, s/he is sidelined, and in more blatant cases, disciplinary or even criminal proceedings initiated. Honesty is rebuffed repeatedly, and normal query on file calling for more information or seeking clear orders starts to look odd and becomes the subject of much corridor discussion. http://www.thehinducentre.com/template/1-0-1/gfx/quote_right.png
Assets with characteristics of “public” wealth such as the technology-based spectrum or a natural resource like coal, that have very high commercial values, are examples in recent times where large losses through policy have been alleged at the central level. At the State level too, licensing of mineral extraction, such as granite, for real estate involve collusive policy actions that have compromised public wealth. Such acts undermine future public revenues, apart from the inevitable environmental damage. These conspiracies cannot have occurred without tripartite connivance. When regulations themselves are fixed, such acts can even be perfectly legal but perfectly corrupt. They take on the nature of the very capture of the state.
Then there is the grand corruption of large contracts that divert public money to further immediate private interests at the cost of the public good. In public procurement deals of huge commercial value like defence at the centre, or excise regimes that favour cartels and even mass schemes needing repeated contracts like universal feeding at the State level, once again collusion can operate. Either the civil servant would initiate a patently absurd procurement or auction, or if the civil servant opposes such an act, the political boss has the confidence to find someone else that can do what is needed. A smart collusion ensures that only “cooperative” personnel are lined up along the progress of the file to eliminate potential disruptions. But when this is not done in advance and a civil servant becomes un-cooperative, s/he is sidelined, and in more blatant cases, disciplinary or even criminal proceedings initiated.
Since these acts have increased over time, and honesty rebuffed repeatedly, personal and professional costs to the honest civil servant increase at the margin. A normal query on file calling for more information or seeking clear orders starts to look odd and becomes the subject of much corridor discussion. The officer becomes mentally prepared to be, at the very least, summarily shifted from the post. The situation of Ashok Khemka appears to be a case in point – the officer, irrespective of the political party in power, has had an average tenure of six months over a career of three decades. When the lesson from each case of conflict is that honesty is costly, normal probity and resistance to corruption tend to decline.
In contrast with national and State levels, municipal and panchayat level politicians have yet to be delegated with powers to allocate public wealth, and local level bureaucracies have limited policy space. Not that corruption is absent, but typically, the money value is low. Examples such as a village administrative officer suspended for demanding a tip for a certificate, a forest ranger caught for ignoring illegal tree cutting, a block development officer charged for siphoning off part of a subsidy in a micro-credit scheme or a school teacher dismissed for demanding payments for grades, do find their way into local papers. As a matter of course, lower end government employees are more easily charged for acts of relatively petty corruption. Most multilateral assisted projects too, ironically, focus on the local levels for improving “governance” (euphemism for anti-corruption in development literature). The implicit assumption is that corruption decreases at higher levels of government – with no basis in experience. Sure, the local focus could also be because that is where the visible part of development projects is located, but could also be a convenient façade due to hesitation in confronting the client at the top.
The positive actions in running governance programmes through multilateral loans, and the punitive actions in catching the lowly serve to deflect attention from the more serious convivial relationship between the politician-businessman-official at higher levels of government. And the focus on petty, rat-like acts at lower levels deflects from serious dacoit-style acts of grand corruption and the less visible, insidious state capture at higher levels. It blinds us all to the old proverb that a fish usually rots from the head down.
The expenses for political success have been rising while the tenure of office is short and hence the need to recoup as soon as possible. Civil servants, on the other hand, have low financial costs for entry and a longer tenure than politicians, often with a pension for life including for a surviving spouse. Hence officials need to be undermined in other ways – transfers, suspensions, charges – to make them toe the line, with public good becoming a contested space. 
There have been several explanations for the rising misappropriation of public good through this nexus or for the official-politician conflict that sometimes comes in the way. A popular explanation runs as follows: the expenses for political success have been rising (it is rumoured that to win a parliamentary seat costs around Rs. 3 crores) while the tenure of office is short (five years) and hence the need to recoup as soon as possible. Civil servants, on the other hand, have low financial costs for entry (cheapest in money terms for the highest category of the IAS as the UPSC recruitments are beyond reproach, even though they cost more in terms of earnings lost in preparation time and the intense effort in competitive entry) and a longer tenure than politicians – at least thirty years – often with a pension for life including for a surviving spouse. Hence officials need to be undermined in other ways – transfers, suspensions, charges – to make them toe the line, with public good becoming a contested space. Advocates of strengthening all the civil services are probably motivated by institutional arrangements that insulate officials from pressures, to serve as barriers to rapid exploitation of public wealth. Unfortunately, counter examples abound, of officials acting with impunity and even guiding their political bosses through the intricacies of procedural requirements for legally diverting public wealth.
After the dismantling of the license raj in 1991, and the opening of the production of public goods like power and roads to the private sector, the opportunities for policy-based corruption declined. Advocates for further cuts in the public investments would like to reduce the scope for both the civil servant and the politician in making investment decisions. But there is little evidence to support this presumption – most acts of privatisation (starting from the disinvestment scandals in the 1990s), Enron and power, coal etc., have led to considerable losses. In fact, liberalisation itself, throws up more opportunities for conversion of public goods into private profits through bad policy.
IAS versus the rest: Debunking a red herring
We now look squarely at the question of the extent to which it is an issue of the IAS versus other civil services. The fact that Durga Shakti Nagpal is an IAS officer, has led the arguments in a potential red herring direction on the IAS itself – diverting from the core issue of misappropriation of public wealth. Note that the district mining officer was also summarily transferred but, without Nagpal, his case would not have received as much attention.
At one extreme, the SP that has stated it does not need IAS officers at all – meaning they do not want officials that do not do as bid. At the other extreme, and on the same basis, is the view that the IAS is the best hope for the protection of public good – a former Cabinet Secretary has argued that the IAS should be strengthened by policy actions such as fixed tenure etc. Both these positions are based on flawed premises. The SP argument presupposes that Nagpal did what she did because she was an IAS officer and the opposite camp that argues for strengthening the IAS, also lays great store by strengthened civil services. It is difficult to argue that she went after the sand mafia because she was an IAS officer. The non-IAS, District Mining Officer (also suddenly transferred) also seems to have been doing an excellent job. It is also unlikely that had Nagpal been from the state civil services she would have acted differently. There are innumerable instances of non-IAS officers who have upheld public interest against serious odds and equally significant number of IAS officers conniving in eroding of public interest (including a former chief secretary level officer from UP who had been found guilty in land scams). Therefore, the argument for strengthening the IAS through fixed tenures based on this case is weak. If anything, it would apply to all services.
On the other hand, the SP argument that an all India service like the IAS (with dual control of State and Central governments) is a hindrance to effective state government performance is equally weak. It presumes that non-IAS officers do not enter into conflicts with politicians as they are fully under state control. This too appears incorrect from the example of the district mining officer and from the example of the UP Chief Secretary (the head of the IAS) in suspending Nagpal without application of mind. And the dual control argument – allowing central government protection for Nagpal from arbitrary actions such as suspension in minutes – has proven to be no protection after all. The central government, and the department of personnel that has the powers to revoke the suspension, itself headed by an IAS officer, directly under the country’s Prime Minister, has remained silent. This, despite the Prime Minister as the departmental minister having been tasked by his party president to ensure justice was done. It would be interesting to document the discussions among the civil servants who actively participated in suspending Nagpal in UP and among those in Delhi who have the power to revoke but remain passive by not exercising that power. What exactly are they advising their political masters on the ramifications of this case?
Practical considerations would suggest that Nagpal, with hardly two years of work experience, and likely to spend another 30 years in UP, would be ill-advised to complain. Even if her suspension is revoked, she would be marked for life as “difficult” and probably end up with a career profile similar to that of Ashok Khemka. So for the SP to blame the IAS or the issue of dual control as the cause of the fiasco is unjustified.
However, some governments run by strong regional parties may be sympathetic to the view that the IAS has no special role, and its all-India status provides no value addition for the ruling government of the day. In Tamilnadu, for example, chief ministers have consistently held that directly recruited IAS officers are neither special, nor do they add value. Further they have through actions such as refusal to send these officers on central deputation, illegal suspension before voluntary retirement, cocked a snook at the central government and the associated notion of dual control. Nevertheless IAS officers have held key positions even with strong regional parties that are confident about their political strength and hence longer staying power – again showing that the issue is not IAS versus the rest as the SP has tried to pitch it.
60 years ago Sardar Patel argued that an all India Service was necessary to integrate a highly diverse country through good and unified governance after centuries of colonial rule and fragmented governance standards... But now, an objective assessment of the IAS would show that it has protected public good but also connived to erode it. 
The argument that the IAS is archaic and not relevant for today’s governance needs is, however, a more serious one – though for reasons different from those advanced by the SP. The sentiment behind creating the IAS is best summarised by Sardar Patel’s arguments in the Constituent Assembly debates. Patel argued that an all India Service was necessary to integrate a highly diverse country through good and unified governance after centuries of colonial rule and fragmented governance standards. Further, these objectives were to be achieved by a composition of IAS officers in states consisting of a ratio of insiders-outsiders selected through high entrance requirements. This system (the steel frame) was designed with the expectation that it would be less biased, prone to corruption and local influences. It would enable them to implement the union laws on the ground fairly uniformly, combined with their knowledge of local issues from establishing state cadres.
Now, around 60 years later, an objective assessment of the IAS with reference to these initial expectations would perhaps show mixed results. As argued earlier, the IAS has both protected public good but also connived to erode it. While the need for an all India policy and implementation framework for national public goods would probably justify the Indian Forest Service, the Indian Foreign Service, the Income Tax, Customs, Defence, and may be even the Police, it is not clear what national and integrating value the IAS brings to citizens. Further, if we take a random sample of IAS officers and stratify on the basis of caste, gender, region or class, and examine whether probity has an association with any of these attributes, one would not find any significant correlation, demonstrating that values such as probity in governance cannot be generated by designing ratios of insider/outsider or dual controls.
Are we at an inflection point?
We now turn to the issue of prospects for the future of governance in India. Could the Durga Shakti Nagpal case be a trend changer that results in serious debate on genuine governance reform? Would victimization of honest officials decline in the face of political embarrassment from growing public scrutiny? Or does this case reinforce a trend that emboldens more such acts? The prospects for change could potentially come from three sources: the bureaucracy itself, the political class, or the rising tide of civil society movements that are angrier and increasingly emboldened.
The reaction of the bureaucracy to the Nagpal episode could be, “Yes, this is what happens when you are young, you get hit, and there is no one to protect you, so next time walk away from confrontations; there are several sand mines but only one career.” This reaction type would reinforce the collusive trends and boost misappropriation. If the past is an efficient predictor, then the former reaction would, over time, subsume the latter. On the other hand, if this case is seen as a wakeup call, and energises all civil services (for example, several IAS associations have come forward to condemn the suspension) then the prospects for systemic reform improve.
The prospect for change from the political leadership is difficult to predict. Electoral democracies do not come cheap. The temptations for quick money and competitive compulsions of elections provide a fertile ground for collusion with business interests that not only generate money, but also benefit from policies and contracts. Hardly any democracy has found a foolproof solution to election funding. The significant positive signal of Sonia Gandhi in taking up the case has been dampened by the Manmohan Singh response asking first for a letter from the aggrieved official to do justice. Unlike on most other issues (food security, water sharing, Telangana or Bodoland) there is unanimity across political parties on amending the Right to Information Act to exclude them from having to share information. Yet, it can hardly be said that all political leaders are corrupt – in the past political movements have been motivated explicitly by social good. Moreover, in the game of electoral musical chairs, political strategy may lead to a realisation that it is better to support clean systems which do not work to their disadvantage when out of power. Political maturity may well lie in responding to people’s expectations in the times of hyper exposure in the media.
 The big unknown is the effect of the Durga Shakti Nagpal case on civil society. Over the years more and more sections of the civil society have accumulated anger against a corrupt system... The widespread disaffection is not only with acts of corruption but with the state of public goods… This anger, though sporadic and dispersed, is real. It may embed in it the kernel of a chance to change the status quo. 
The big unknown is the effect of the Durga Shakti Nagpal case on civil society. Over the years more and more sections of the civil society – as individual and as groups – have accumulated anger against a corrupt system. While “letterhead” CSOs do have questionable reputations, some of the collective action movements have shown remarkable staying power and an ability to channel public anger. The widespread disaffection is not only with acts of corruption but with the state of public goods, often expressed petulantly as “why should I pay taxes from my hard earned money for this corrupt neta-business-babu nexus to spend?” This anger, though sporadic and dispersed, is real. It may embed in it the kernel of a chance to change the status quo. A catalysing agent may be the new media which make collective action far easier. It can amplify voice and visibility at very low cost in terms of money, time or effort. A small voice can leverage disproportionate power through extraordinary and instant visibility.
Time will tell whether India is at a turning point – whether people’s pressure from below will join hands with political maturity from above. The civil service usually complies.
(Rajivan Krishnaswamy has a Masters and PhD in Economics from the University of Southern California, Los Angeles. He has worked in the IAS, at various levels, starting from city level administration to the prime ministers office. He was the CEO and MD of the Tamilnadu Urban Development Fund (1996-2003), after which he worked as Senior Urban Finance Specialist at the World Bank in Washington. Currently he is an independent consultant based in Chennai, working in China, Vietnam and Ghana.)


Excerpts from Vanzara's letter: Modi was my god

To Addl Chief Secretary (Home),
Government of Gujarat
I, D G Vanzara, DIG of Police (under suspension), undertrial prisoner No. 4826 in Sabarmati Central Prison, hereby tender this resignation with renunciation of all post-retirement benefits on the following grounds:
...While I was serving as DIG, border range, Kutch-Bhuj, I was arrested in the Sohrabuddin encounter case by the CID (crime) of Gujarat on April 24, 2007. Along with other police officers, I was lodged in Sarbarmati Central Jail till November 22, 2012. I was also arrested in the Tulsiram encounter case by the CID (crime) on July 7, 2010. After my shifting to Taloja Central Prison, the CBI opened two more cases, the Sadiq Jamal encounter case and the Ishrat Jahan encounter case.
As on today, apart from nine Gujarat/Rajasthan police officers in Taloja Central Prison, there are 22 other officers/men in different jails in Gujarat, [a total of] 32 including six IPS officers... Most of them had served under me. I have been making ceaseless efforts on behalf of all of them to persuade this government to be of assistance to my officers and me... With the passage of time, I realised this government was not only not interested in protecting us but has also been clandestinely making all efforts to keep my officers an me in jail so as to save its own skin from the CBI and to gain political benefits.
This government suddenly became vibrant only when Amitbhai Shah, former MoS (home), was arrested. Ram Jethmalani, the most learned, senior-most and highest paid advocate of India, appeared on behalf of him and got him released on regular bail within a record three months. In contrast, when I, along with Rajkumar Pandian and Dinesh M N, was arrested, nobody from the government bothered even to provide lip service to my family.
In spite of all its acts of treachery, I was gradually reconciling myself with this government when a skylab in the form of a Supreme Court order for the transfer of the Sohrabuddin trial to Mumbai fell on us from New Delhi. With all regard for the Supreme Court, I sincerely believe that but for the legal and political manouevrings of Amitbhai Shah, the trial of the Sohrabuddin case, followed by that of the Tulsiram case, would not have gone out of Gujarat.
The crux of the matter is that it was just to facilitate his trivial personal interest of fighting the assembly election of 2012 that Amitbhai Shah got the trial transferred. As if this was not enough, he also managed the merger of the Tulsiram encounter case into that of the Sohrabuddin encounter to prevent his arrest in the second case [and] closed the doors of regular bail to the police officers.
Under the circumstances, my officers and I feel ditched and hence there remains no reason for us to continue to trust this government and its ace strategist Amitbhai Shah, who proved himself completely self-centred. He has reduced himself to a mere custodian of the political interests of the Gujarat government, which he is jealously guarding. He has been playing with our lives without an iota of qualms of conscience.
I have been observing from 2002 that Amitbhai Shah as MoS, home, had been mismanaging a sensitive department like police... He introduced a British policy of divide and rule coupled with an equally dirty policy of use-the-officers-and-[discard]-them by spreading misinformation about them. A situation so [arrived] that no one in the department trusted the other; everyone perceived the other to be a potential spy or rival [and] as if daggers were drawn, [they] were out to harm or finish each other. The MoS (home) lost all credibility and the confidence of police officers and vice versa, which ignited the "yadavasthali of fratricidial police wars" in Gujarat that was later exploited by the CBI... So much so that the MoS, home, himself fell into the grave he used to dig for others.
I realised the truth in the statement of Mahatma Gandhi who observed, "States are soulless machines... governments have no conscience..." The only way open to my officers and me is to adopt the path Guru Govind Singh ordained to his disciples: "When all the doors for getting justice are exhausted, it is dharma to draw the sword." Accordingly, I have a moral justification to expose the real culprits behind the encounter cases by calling a spade a spade.
I, therefore, would like to categorically state in the most unequivocal terms that the officers and men of the crime branch, ATS and border range, during the period 2002 to 2007, simply acted in compliance with the conscious policy of this government in the context of the following circumstances:
The monstrous episode of the Godhra train burning and the equally horrible post-Godhra riots provided a pretext to Pakistan-based terrorist outfits to "convert Gujarat into another Kashmir" by exploiting the sentiments of Muslims all over the world. A series of acts of terrorism took place. It was in this context that "the proactive policy of zero tolerance for terrorism" was adopted by the government at the highest level of its hierarchy. The policy was most efficiently implemented by the police in general and by the crime branch and the ATS in particular.
I can say with pride that my officers and men could not only prevent Gujarat from becoming another Kashmir but were also instrumental in providing a solid atmosphere of durable peace and security... I state with all humility that, but for [our] sacrifices, the "Gujarat Model of Development" this government is so assiduously showcasing at the national level would not have been possible.
I used to get dozens of calls from the biggies of Gandhinagar who probably saw a saviour in me/my officers, but by the time I/my officers had outlived my/their utility and were arrested, nobody bothered to formally ask how we were!
The CID/CBI arrested my officers and me holding us responsible for carrying out allegedly fake encounters. If that is true, then the CBI investigating officers for all four cases have to arrest the policy formulators too as we, being field officers, have simply implemented the policy of this government, which was inspiring, guiding and monitoring our actions from very close quarters.
The logic is simple: the government and police officers are sailing on the same boat and have to swim or sink together. I would like to state in the most unambiguous terms that this government, through the dirty tactics of Amitbhai Shah, is managing only for itself... while ditching the police officers. By adopting such a suicidal path, this government, I am sure, is hastening its own death by drowning.
The Chief Minister of Gujarat has very rightly been talking of repaying the debt he owes Mother India. But it would not be out of context to remind him that he, in the hurry of marching towards Delhi, may kindly not forget to repay the debt he owes the jailed police officers who endowed him with the halo of a Brave Chief Minister among a galaxy of other CMs whose names do not carry the same adjective.
Let me also put on record that I have been maintaining my graceful silence for such a long period only because of my supreme faith in and highest respect for Narendrabhai Modi, Chief Minister of Gujarat, whom I used to adore like a god. I am sorry to state that my god could not rise to the occasion under the evil influence of Amitbhai Shah, who usurped his eyes and ears and has been successfully misguiding him by converting goats into dogs and dogs into goats for the last 12 years. His unholy grip over the administration is so complete that he is almost running the government of Gujarat by proxy.
I have to state in a nutshell that this spineless government, which is valiant only in words [and] otherwise cowardly in deeds and impotent in actions, has ceased to command my allegiance, trust and loyalty.
...I say goodbye to the Gujarat Police, of which I had been a proud member for the last 33 years.
D G Vanzara
IGP (under suspension)

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Fuel for thought

It really is a no-brainer. India is grappling with a current account deficit (CAD) of $80 billion that is exerting tremendous pressure on the rupee.
(i) Controlling imports and (ii) reducing the trade balance are obviously one of the key strategies for reining in the CAD.
Crude oil is the largest component of India’s import bill, accounting for a third of the total. Any attempt to control the CAD should obviously start with reducing the crude oil import bill.
Iran, which is stifled by U.S. financial sanctions, is willing to sell oil to India in exchange for payment in rupees. What should the government do? Grab the offer, obviously. Yet, buckling to unfair pressure from the U.S., the government has been cutting down on imports from Iran over the past three years.
As India fell in line with U.S. sanctions, it reduced its oil imports from Iran from 21.2 million tonnes in 2009-10 to 13.2 million tonnes in 2012-13. In the first five months of this fiscal, the country imported just two million tonnes of crude oil from Iran.
However, the time has now come for India to unhitch itself from the American bandwagon and step up crude imports from Iran in its own interests.
According to a proposal the Petroleum Ministry has sent to the Prime Minister, the country’s dollar payments for its oil imports can be brought down by $8.5 billion (almost 10 per cent of the CAD) if it imports as much oil from Iran as it did in 2012-13, which is another 11 million tonnes.
This newspaper argued even at the time of imposition of sanctions on Iran that succumbing to U.S. pressure would not be in India’s interests.
With Iran offering the comfort of rupee payments through a bank account with an Indian bank in Kolkata,
India should now push the advantage and maximise its oil purchases from that country.
Such a move will ease the pressure not just on the current account but also in the forex market as the oil companies will be buying that many dollars less.
Oil companies are big buyers of dollars and have the potential to influence the forex market.
Meanwhile, the government’s announcement that fuel conservation measures will be announced soon has raised expectations and anxieties equally.
Ideas such as the one to close petrol bunks at night are not just bad but foolish, and Petroleum Minister Veerappa Moily’s suggestion to that effect caused considerable confusion before he clarified the position on Monday.
The best way to conserve fuel is to raise prices to market levels, which will hopefully push users to economise on consumption. T

he downside though is that it will have an adverse impact on inflation. Clearly, the choices are not easy but the government should keep in mind the interests of the common man while framing its strategy for fuel conservation.